Neighborhood · Ranked #63,481 of 84,120 nationally

Washington Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200106 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,203 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Here is how census tract 51510200106, in the Washington Forest area of Alexandria eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 6.3/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 3,203. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,986 a month against an average household income of $103,510 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 72% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

2.7

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 36% Owners 29%

Tract context

Occupied units1,535

Renter share71.5%

SVI overall0.82

Poverty rate10.6%

Median income$103,510

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8382, -77.1138 · click any tract to drill in

Why Washington Forest scores 2.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

10.6% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$1,986 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Washington Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

60%Socioeconomic
71%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
95%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.2%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
12.3%Food insecurity
9.1%SNAP enrollment
6.8%Transit barriers
11.3%No health insurance
13.7%Frequent mental distress
32.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Washington Forest

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200106

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200106?

Census tract 51510200106 in the Washington Forest neighborhood scores 2.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200106?

Median gross rent is $1,986/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200106?

10.6% of residents in tract 51510200106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,203.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200106?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 71th, minority 73th, housing 95th.

Is tract 51510200106 considered part of Washington Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200106 fall within Washington Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200106 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200106 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200106 scores 2.7/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.