Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #49,882 of 84,120 nationally
Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria
Tract 51510200108 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 1,651 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51510200108 covers the Lincolnia Park neighborhood of Alexandria in Virginia. Home to 1,651 residents, it scores 6.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 79% of US census tracts.
About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,093 a month while the average household earns $75,278 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 81% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units728
Renter share81.3%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate17.8%
Median income$75,278
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
89
th percentile
High
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8173, -77.1386 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincolnia Park scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.8% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$2,093 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lincolnia Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 24
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lincolnia Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.6%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.4%Food insecurity
- 12.9%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincolnia Park
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 24th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200108
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200108?
Census tract 51510200108 in the Lincolnia Park neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200108?
Median gross rent is $2,093/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200108?
17.8% of residents in tract 51510200108 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,651.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200108?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 3th, minority 74th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200108 considered part of Lincolnia Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200108 fall within Lincolnia Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200108 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200108 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200108 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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