Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #12,919 of 84,120 nationally
Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200102 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,688 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51510200102 is a census tract in the Dowden Terrace area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 7/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,688. Severe burden reaches 37%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,570
Renter share75.7%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate11.2%
Median income$77,069
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8340, -77.1255 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dowden Terrace scores 7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.2% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,952 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Dowden Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 87%Socioeconomic
- 52%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 75%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dowden Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.3%Food insecurity
- 14.1%SNAP enrollment
- 9.9%Transit barriers
- 15.8%No health insurance
- 16.5%Frequent mental distress
- 29.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dowden Terrace
Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. This is renter territory: 76% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.
That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 8.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,952, close to the Alexandria average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $77,069.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200102?
Census tract 51510200102 in the Dowden Terrace neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200102?
Median gross rent is $1,952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200102?
11.2% of residents in tract 51510200102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,688.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 52th, minority 79th, housing 75th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200102 considered part of Dowden Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200102 fall within Dowden Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200102 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200102 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200102 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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