Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Shirley Duke Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510200500 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,248 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Shirley Duke in Alexandria anchors census tract 51510200500, which lands at 6.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 62% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,723 monthly, set against $63,944 in average yearly household income, roughly 32% of income at the averages. About 84% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 16%
Tract context
Occupied units2,362
Renter share84.3%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate20.8%
Median income$63,944
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8155, -77.1078 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley Duke scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.8% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$1,723 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Shirley Duke compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 57%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.5%Housing insecurity
- 9.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.3%Food insecurity
- 13.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 9.7%No health insurance
- 17.8%Frequent mental distress
- 27.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shirley Duke
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 57th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200500?
Census tract 51510200500 in the Shirley Duke neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200500?
Median gross rent is $1,723/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200500?
20.8% of residents in tract 51510200500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,248.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 22th, minority 70th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200500 considered part of Shirley Duke?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200500 fall within Shirley Duke (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200500 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200500 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200500 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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