Neighborhood · Ranked #42,763 of 84,120 nationally

WestEnd Alexandria Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 51510200409 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 5,793 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51510200409 (the WestEnd Alexandria area of Alexandria, Virginia) comes in at 6.5/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 86th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 64% of renter households, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,844 a month while the average household earns $71,417 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. Renters make up 80% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

3.9

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 29% Owners 20%

Tract context

Occupied units3,450

Renter share79.9%

SVI overall0.67

Poverty rate19.1%

Median income$71,417

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8101, -77.1268 · click any tract to drill in

Why WestEnd Alexandria scores 3.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

19.1% poverty · this tract

4.8

Supply constraint

$1,844 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How WestEnd Alexandria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

73%Socioeconomic
21%Household composition
78%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within WestEnd Alexandria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.2%Housing insecurity
10.8%Utility-shutoff threat
19.1%Food insecurity
16.5%SNAP enrollment
10.4%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
17.9%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in WestEnd Alexandria

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200409

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200409?

Census tract 51510200409 in the WestEnd Alexandria neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200409?

Median gross rent is $1,844/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200409?

19.1% of residents in tract 51510200409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,793.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 21th, minority 78th, housing 68th.

Is tract 51510200409 considered part of WestEnd Alexandria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200409 fall within WestEnd Alexandria (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200409 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200409 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200409 scores 3.9/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.