Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #76,223 of 84,120 nationally
Winslow Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria
Tract 51510200403 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 1,671 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51510200403 sits in Winslow Hills in Alexandria eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. On the national scale it ranks #34,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 30% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,398 a month against an average household income of $145,313 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 56% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
1.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 39%
Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units815
Renter share56.4%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$145,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
34
th percentile
Low
Within county
38
th percentile
Low
Within state
29
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8035, -77.1209 · click any tract to drill in
Why Winslow Hills scores 1.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,398 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Winslow Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 24%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.0%Transit barriers
- 5.2%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 18.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Winslow Hills
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 5th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200403?
Census tract 51510200403 in the Winslow Hills neighborhood scores 1.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200403?
Median gross rent is $2,398/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200403?
5.5% of residents in tract 51510200403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,671.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 1th, minority 71th, housing 24th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200403 considered part of Winslow Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200403 fall within Winslow Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200403 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200403 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200403 scores 1.8/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Related