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Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Wakefield Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria

Tract 51510200404 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,057 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 51510200404 covers part of the Wakefield area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 4.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,057. The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 11% Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,964
Renter share19.7%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.9%
Median income$188,468

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Wakefield
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Very Low
Within county
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#46 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Very Low
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#649 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8083, -77.1197 · click any tract to drill in

Why Wakefield scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Wakefield compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Wakefield risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.7This tracttract 2004045.9Alexandriaparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 4

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Wakefield

At $3,501 a month, rents run 68% over what the rest of Alexandria commands. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.0 points. Housing insecurity runs 5.0% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.4/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 44% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $188,468.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200404?

Census tract 51510200404 in the Wakefield neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510200404?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200404?

1.9% of residents in tract 51510200404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,057.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 2th, minority 43th, housing 32th.
Q5

Is tract 51510200404 considered part of Wakefield?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200404 fall within Wakefield (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510200404 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510200404 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200404 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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