Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Shirley Duke Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200500 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,248 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
With a score of 7.3/10, tract 51510200500 in the Shirley Duke area of Alexandria, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,248. 62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Alexandria City average of 41.2%.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 16%
Tract context
Occupied units2,362
Renter share84.3%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate20.8%
Median income$63,944
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
87
th percentile
High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8155, -77.1078 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley Duke scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.8% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$1,723 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Shirley Duke compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 57%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.5%Housing insecurity
- 9.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.3%Food insecurity
- 13.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 9.7%No health insurance
- 17.8%Frequent mental distress
- 27.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shirley Duke
The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. This is renter territory: 84% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. Set annual rent against average income of $63,944 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10.
The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Average gross rent is $1,723, 18% below the Alexandria average.
On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.1/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200500?
Census tract 51510200500 in the Shirley Duke neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200500?
Median gross rent is $1,723/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200500?
20.8% of residents in tract 51510200500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,248.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 22th, minority 70th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200500 considered part of Shirley Duke?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200500 fall within Shirley Duke (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200500 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200500 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200500 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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