Neighborhood · Alexandria, VA

Shirley Duke Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 4,248 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.2/10 · range 4.2–4.2

Shirley Duke is a white-black neighborhood in Alexandria with 1 census tract and a population of 4,248 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 62% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 32% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,723/month sits 18% lower than the Alexandria citywide average ($2,089).

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

1 tracts · population-weighted

Shirley Duke vs Alexandria How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

61.6% +118%

Alexandria: 28.3%

Average gross rent

$1,723 -18%

Alexandria: $2,089

Average HH income

$63,944 -44%

Alexandria: $113,638

Poverty rate

20.8% +147%

Alexandria: 8.4%

Renter share

84.3% +46%

Alexandria: 57.9%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Shirley Duke and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.2–4.2

Why Shirley Duke scores 4.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.1–8.1 across tracts

8.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts

8.0

Rent control risk

62% of income on rent · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

84% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts

6.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Economic stress

20.8% below poverty line · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts

5.2

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.4–2.4 across tracts

2.4

Risk score comparison

Shirley Duke vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Shirley Duke

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51510200500	4.2	4,248	62%	$1,723

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 57

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 65%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 22%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 71%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 57%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shirley Duke

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.5%Housing insecurity
9.6%Utility shutoff threat
16.3%Food insecurity
13.7%SNAP enrollment
9.7%No health insurance
27.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Shirley Duke

What is the eviction-risk score for Shirley Duke?

Shirley Duke scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Shirley Duke compare to Alexandria overall?

Shirley Duke scores 0.4 points lower than Alexandria overall (4.6/10). Renters spend 62% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Average rent: $1,723 vs $2,089.

What is the average rent in Shirley Duke?

Average gross rent in Shirley Duke is $1,723/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Shirley Duke residents are renters?

84% of Shirley Duke households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Alexandria). The neighborhood has 4,248 residents.

Is Shirley Duke a high social-vulnerability area?

Shirley Duke sits in the 57th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Shirley Duke for landlords?

Shirley Duke carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Alexandria as a whole (4.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Shirley Duke?

Shirley Duke has 3,931 residents (White-Black Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (41.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (37.8%), Hispanic / Latino (12%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Shirley Duke

2.1 Delta 2 tracts · pop 7,179 2 Seminary Valley 2 tracts · pop 7,698 3.4 WestEnd Alexandria 5 tracts · pop 21,076 2.6 Fort Ward Heights 2 tracts · pop 8,132 3.4 Dowden Terrace 2 tracts · pop 8,999 3.1 Lincolnia Park 2 tracts · pop 4,723

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Alexandria

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Shirley Duke.

3.4 Dowden Terrace 2 tracts · pop 8,999 3.4 WestEnd Alexandria 5 tracts · pop 21,076 3.3 Beverley Hills 2 tracts · pop 7,955 3 Clover 1 tracts · pop 2,935 2.9 Lincolnia Park 2 tracts · pop 4,723 2.7 Washington Forest 1 tracts · pop 3,203

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