Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Warwick Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201202 ·
Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,569 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51510201202 sits in the Warwick Village area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. It is home to 3,569 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%Stable renters 34%Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,686
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$152,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Warwick Village
Moderate
Within parent city
6th percentile
#45 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Very Low
Within county
9th percentile
#44 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Very Low
Within state
73th percentile
#589 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8327, -77.0635 · click any tract to drill in
Why Warwick Village scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,152 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Warwick Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
2%Socioeconomic
17%Household composition
49%Racial/ethnic minority
27%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
6.3%Housing insecurity
3.9%Utility-shutoff threat
5.7%Food insecurity
3.8%SNAP enrollment
4.0%Transit barriers
5.2%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
18.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Warwick Village
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 5.7% against 17.8% nationally. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 35% of renters here are cost-burdened.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 0.9 points below the Alexandria City average of 5.7. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the national scale it lands near the 58th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $152,750, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201202?
Census tract 51510201202 in the Warwick Village neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201202?
Median gross rent is $2,152/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201202?
3.1% of residents in tract 51510201202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,569.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 17th, minority 49th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201202 considered part of Warwick Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201202 fall within Warwick Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201202 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201202 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201202 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.