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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Bayberry Place Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chesapeake

Tract 51550020813 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 2,265 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

With a score of 4.3/10, tract 51550020813 in the Bayberry Place area of Chesapeake, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,265 residents. 36% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 57% Stable renters 34% Owners 9%
Tract context
Occupied units1,361
Renter share91.3%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$55,494

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Bayberry Place
Moderate
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake
High
Within county
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake city
High
Within state
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#854 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region

Centroid at 36.7834, -76.2264 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayberry Place scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,858 rent vs county FMR
6.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5

How Bayberry Place compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bayberry Place risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.3This tracttract 0208133.4Chesapeakeparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 55

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bayberry Place. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayberry Place

91% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Chesapeake City average of 49.2%. Set annual rent against average income of $55,494 and the ratio lands at 40%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.9/10. Average gross rent is $1,858, 17% above the Chesapeake average.

On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10. It sits 0.7 points above the Chesapeake City average of 3.6.

On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51550020813

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020813?

Census tract 51550020813 in the Bayberry Place neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51550020813?

Median gross rent is $1,858/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020813?

7.4% of residents in tract 51550020813 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,265.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020813?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 24th, minority 61th, housing 40th.
Q5

Is tract 51550020813 considered part of Bayberry Place?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020813 fall within Bayberry Place (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51550020813 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51550020813 compare to Chesapeake overall?

Tract 51550020813 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake

Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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