Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

Three Fountains Eviction Risk: Lower , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000205 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,079 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51680000205 is a census tract in the Three Fountains area of Lynchburg, VA. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,079 residents. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score

3.8

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 27% Owners 57%

Tract context

Occupied units1,261

Renter share43.1%

SVI overall0.83

Poverty rate14.7%

Median income$53,690

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.4107, -79.2005 · click any tract to drill in

Why Three Fountains scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lynchburg

4.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

14.7% poverty · this tract

3.7

Supply constraint

$772 rent vs county FMR

1.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lynchburg

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.5

How Three Fountains compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

85%Socioeconomic
49%Household composition
49%Racial/ethnic minority
89%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: A: Best

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.8%Housing insecurity
10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
17.8%Food insecurity
17.4%SNAP enrollment
10.1%Transit barriers
9.2%No health insurance
17.8%Frequent mental distress
37.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Three Fountains

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. At $772 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of Lynchburg commands.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. 37% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Lynchburg City average of 43.8%. This ground was mapped A ("Best") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10.

Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $53,690, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Lynchburg City average of 4.2 closely.

43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000205

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000205?

Census tract 51680000205 in the Three Fountains neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51680000205?

Median gross rent is $772/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000205?

14.7% of residents in tract 51680000205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,079.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000205?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 49th, minority 49th, housing 89th.

Is tract 51680000205 considered part of Three Fountains?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000205 fall within Three Fountains (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51680000205 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51680000205 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000205 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51680000205 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.