Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
Tate Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000300 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 4,322 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 51680000300 in the Tate Springs area of Lynchburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,322. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units1,742
Renter share57.4%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate17.5%
Median income$47,262
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.4205, -79.1789 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tate Springs scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.5% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$856 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Tate Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 12%Grade B
- 3%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 498Total filings over 4 yrs
- 12.17%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.5%Peak (2014)
- 131Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.5%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.9%Food insecurity
- 13.8%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 35.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tate Springs
Severe burden reaches 26%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Cost burden runs 56% here against 43.8% across Lynchburg City.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. Average gross rent is $856, 20% below the Lynchburg average.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 498 filings here across 4 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2014, when 12.5% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 12.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 8.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000300?
Census tract 51680000300 in the Tate Springs neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000300?
Median gross rent is $856/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000300?
17.5% of residents in tract 51680000300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,322.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 97th, minority 57th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000300 considered part of Tate Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000300 fall within Tate Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 498 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.17% of renter households, peaking at 12.5% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000300 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000300 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000300 scores 4.2/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000300 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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