Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Rivermont Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000400 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,923 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51680000400 is a census tract in the Lower Rivermont area of Lynchburg, VA. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,195
Renter share50.0%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate20.6%
Median income$42,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.4286, -79.1526 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Rivermont scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.6% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$813 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Lower Rivermont compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 32%Grade C
- 14%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 588Total filings over 4 yrs
- 21.03%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.9%Peak (2016)
- 174Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 28% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.9%Housing insecurity
- 13.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.9%Food insecurity
- 23.0%SNAP enrollment
- 12.7%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 19.6%Frequent mental distress
- 37.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Rivermont
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. At $813 a month, rents run 24% under what the rest of Lynchburg commands. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 588 filings here across 4 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 23.0% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 20.9% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 21.0% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000400?
Census tract 51680000400 in the Lower Rivermont neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000400?
Median gross rent is $813/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000400?
20.6% of residents in tract 51680000400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,923.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 39th, minority 71th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000400 considered part of Lower Rivermont?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000400 fall within Lower Rivermont (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 588 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.03% of renter households, peaking at 20.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000400 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000400 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000400 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 14% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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