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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Rivermont Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000400 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,923 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 51680000400 runs through the Lower Rivermont neighborhood of Lynchburg. With 2,923 residents, it scores 5.4/10 for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #40,926 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 44% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $813 monthly, set against $42,750 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 50% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 28% Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,195
Renter share50.0%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate20.6%
Median income$42,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Lower Rivermont
Moderate
Within parent city
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg
Elevated
Within county
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg city
Elevated
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#181 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.4286, -79.1526 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Rivermont scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.6% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$813 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5

How Lower Rivermont compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower Rivermont risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 000400Lynchburg: 4.04.0Lynchburgparent cityCounty: 4.74.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 588Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 21.03%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.9%Peak (2016)
  • 174Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 516800004002013: 136 filings (20.76/100 renter HHs)2014: 128 filings (19.54/100 renter HHs)2015: 150 filings (22.90/100 renter HHs)2016: 174 filings (20.91/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 28% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Rivermont

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Part of this tract, about 14% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000400?

Census tract 51680000400 in the Lower Rivermont neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51680000400?

Median gross rent is $813/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000400?

20.6% of residents in tract 51680000400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,923.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 39th, minority 71th, housing 61th.
Q5

Is tract 51680000400 considered part of Lower Rivermont?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000400 fall within Lower Rivermont (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 588 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.03% of renter households, peaking at 20.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51680000400 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51680000400 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000400 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51680000400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 14% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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