Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally
Chestnut Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Lynchburg
Tract 51680001000 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,229 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51680001000 belongs to the Chestnut Hill neighborhood of Lynchburg, Virginia. It is home to 3,229 residents and scores 4.5/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 22% of US census tracts.
About 23% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $882 a month while the average household earns $68,266 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,167
Renter share39.1%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate7.9%
Median income$68,266
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.3804, -79.1771 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chestnut Hill scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.9% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$882 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Chestnut Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 37%Socioeconomic
- 23%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 26%Grade A
- 9%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 187Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.5%Peak (2013)
- 36Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 43% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 17.7%Frequent mental distress
- 29.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chestnut Hill
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 25th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 187 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 10.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 13.5% of renter households in 2013.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680001000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680001000?
Census tract 51680001000 in the Chestnut Hill neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680001000?
Median gross rent is $882/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680001000?
7.9% of residents in tract 51680001000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,229.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680001000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 23th, minority 43th, housing 21th.
Q5
Is tract 51680001000 considered part of Chestnut Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680001000 fall within Chestnut Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680001000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 187 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680001000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.00% of renter households, peaking at 13.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680001000 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680001000 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680001000 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680001000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
College Park
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Westend
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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