Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Parkfairfax Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201000 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,209 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Census tract 51510201000 covers part of the Parkfairfax area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,209. roughly one in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Alexandria City average of 41.2%.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units2,171
Renter share33.7%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$100,737
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8378, -77.0815 · click any tract to drill in
Why Parkfairfax scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,897 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Parkfairfax compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.6%Housing insecurity
- 3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.3%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.4%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Parkfairfax
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 3.7% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
At $1,897 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Alexandria commands. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201000?
Census tract 51510201000 in the Parkfairfax neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201000?
Median gross rent is $1,897/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201000?
4.1% of residents in tract 51510201000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,209.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 2th, minority 35th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201000 considered part of Parkfairfax?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201000 fall within Parkfairfax (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201000 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201000 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201000 scores 5.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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