Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #16,571 of 84,120 nationally
Washington Forest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200106 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,203 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 6.3/10, tract 51510200106 in the Washington Forest area of Alexandria, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,203. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,535
Renter share71.5%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate10.6%
Median income$103,510
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
75
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8382, -77.1138 · click any tract to drill in
Why Washington Forest scores 6.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.6% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,986 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Washington Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 82
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.3%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 11.3%No health insurance
- 13.7%Frequent mental distress
- 32.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Washington Forest
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 50% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. That is riskier than roughly 80% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,986, close to the Alexandria average.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $103,510.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200106
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200106?
Census tract 51510200106 in the Washington Forest neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200106?
Median gross rent is $1,986/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200106?
10.6% of residents in tract 51510200106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,203.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200106?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 71th, minority 73th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200106 considered part of Washington Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200106 fall within Washington Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200106 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200106 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200106 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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