Tract 51510200403 ·
Alexandria city, VA · pop 1,671 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.1/10, tract 51510200403 in the Winslow Hills area of Alexandria, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,671. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.4/10.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%Stable renters 39%Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units815
Renter share56.4%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$145,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Winslow Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
32th percentile
#33 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Low
Within county
34th percentile
#32 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Low
Within state
78th percentile
#473 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8035, -77.1209 · click any tract to drill in
Why Winslow Hills scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,398 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Winslow Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
10%Socioeconomic
1%Household composition
71%Racial/ethnic minority
24%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
8.1%Housing insecurity
5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
7.5%Food insecurity
5.1%SNAP enrollment
5.0%Transit barriers
5.2%No health insurance
14.3%Frequent mental distress
18.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Winslow Hills
Cost burden runs 30% here against 41.2% across Alexandria City. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Food insecurity runs 7.5% against 17.8% nationally.
12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. At $2,398 a month, rents run 15% over what the rest of Alexandria commands.
Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points. Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Social vulnerability reads 1.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $145,313.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200403?
Census tract 51510200403 in the Winslow Hills neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200403?
Median gross rent is $2,398/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200403?
5.5% of residents in tract 51510200403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,671.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 1th, minority 71th, housing 24th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200403 considered part of Winslow Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200403 fall within Winslow Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200403 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200403 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200403 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.