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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Virginia Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013102002 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,292 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 51013102002 covers part of the Virginia Square area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,292. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.1/10.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 50% Owners 22%
Tract context
Occupied units544
Renter share77.6%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate4.4%
Median income$137,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 5 tracts In Virginia Square
Very Low
Within parent city
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Moderate
Within county
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#44 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Low
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8789, -77.1049 · click any tract to drill in

Why Virginia Square scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.4% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,207 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Virginia Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Virginia Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.55.5This tracttract 102002Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 58

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 29Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.60%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.6%Peak (2016)
  • 29Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Virginia Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Virginia Square

This is renter territory: 78% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.1% against 17.8% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 29 filings here across 1 tracked years.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 36% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013102002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102002?

Census tract 51013102002 in the Virginia Square neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013102002?

Median gross rent is $2,207/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102002?

4.4% of residents in tract 51013102002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,292.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 21th, minority 66th, housing 86th.
Q5

Is tract 51013102002 considered part of Virginia Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102002 fall within Virginia Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.60% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013102002 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013102002 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013102002 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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