Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally
Ravensworth Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate , Annandale
Tract 51059452302 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,129 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51059452302 is a census tract in the Ravensworth Grove area of Annandale, VA. It scores 5.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,129 residents. The severe-burden share is 46%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%Stable renters 15%Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units1,685
Renter share56.1%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate24.3%
Median income$69,129
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Ravensworth Grove
Moderate
Within parent city
78th percentile
#3 of 10 tracts In Annandale
High
Within county
88th percentile
#34 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
93th percentile
#147 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Annandale and the region
Centroid at 38.8220, -77.2178 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ravensworth Grove scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Annandale
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.3% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$1,958 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Annandale
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Annandale
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Annandale
6.8
How Ravensworth Grove compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 85
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
91%Socioeconomic
80%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
49%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
1,277Total filings over 4 yrs
27.24%Avg annual filing rate
39.2%Peak (2016)
419Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings climbed 87% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
25.1%Housing insecurity
15.1%Utility-shutoff threat
34.1%Food insecurity
27.4%SNAP enrollment
16.2%Transit barriers
26.8%No health insurance
17.6%Frequent mental distress
36.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ravensworth Grove
roughly three in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.4/10.
Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $69,129, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Housing insecurity runs 25.1% against 14.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10.
Court records carry 1,277 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 39.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 27.2% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452302?
Census tract 51059452302 in the Ravensworth Grove neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452302?
Median gross rent is $1,958/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452302?
24.3% of residents in tract 51059452302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,129.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 80th, minority 86th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452302 considered part of Ravensworth Grove?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452302 fall within Ravensworth Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,277 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.24% of renter households, peaking at 39.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452302 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452302 compare to Annandale overall?
Tract 51059452302 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Annandale at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Annandale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Annandale
Top eight tracts in Annandale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.