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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Wilburdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Annandale

Tract 51059452102 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,314 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 4.5/10, tract 51059452102 in the Wilburdale area of Annandale, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.4/10.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 14% Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units943
Renter share27.6%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$124,911

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Wilburdale
Moderate
Within parent city
56 th percentile
Rank, 56th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 10 tracts In Annandale
Elevated
Within county
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#89 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Elevated
Within state
66 th percentile
Rank, 66th percentileLowHigh
#739 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Annandale and the region

Centroid at 38.8184, -77.1961 · click any tract to drill in

Why Wilburdale scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Annandale
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,124 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Annandale
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Annandale
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Annandale
6.8

How Wilburdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Wilburdale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 452102Annandale: 4.54.5Annandaleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 71

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 93Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 6.10%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.4%Peak (2013)
  • 18Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594521022011: 23 filings (5.64/100 renter HHs)2012: 22 filings (5.39/100 renter HHs)2013: 30 filings (7.35/100 renter HHs)2016: 18 filings (6.00/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Wilburdale

Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.7/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. Court records carry 93 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

Average gross rent is $2,124, 10% above the Annandale average. The worst year on record was 2013, when 7.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 6.1% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.

Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $124,911. 28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059452102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452102?

Census tract 51059452102 in the Wilburdale neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059452102?

Median gross rent is $2,124/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452102?

6.8% of residents in tract 51059452102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,314.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 48th, minority 74th, housing 86th.
Q5

Is tract 51059452102 considered part of Wilburdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452102 fall within Wilburdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452102?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 93 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.10% of renter households, peaking at 7.4% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059452102 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059452102 compare to Annandale overall?

Tract 51059452102 scores 4.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Annandale at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Annandale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Annandale

Top eight tracts in Annandale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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