Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

New Towne Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000902 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,203 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51680000902 sits in the New Towne neighborhood of Lynchburg eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. That is riskier than roughly 30% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

29% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,108 a month while the average household earns $66,970 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 76% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 54% Owners 24%

Tract context

Occupied units1,268

Renter share75.6%

SVI overall0.55

Poverty rate11.8%

Median income$66,970

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.3811, -79.2137 · click any tract to drill in

Why New Towne scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lynchburg

4.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

11.8% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$1,108 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lynchburg

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.5

How New Towne compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 55

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

58%Socioeconomic
22%Household composition
58%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.4%Housing insecurity
8.7%Utility-shutoff threat
15.3%Food insecurity
12.3%SNAP enrollment
9.5%Transit barriers
8.8%No health insurance
20.4%Frequent mental distress
28.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in New Towne

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 4.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 55th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000902

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000902?

Census tract 51680000902 in the New Towne neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51680000902?

Median gross rent is $1,108/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000902?

11.8% of residents in tract 51680000902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,203.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000902?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 58th, household 22th, minority 58th, housing 66th.

Is tract 51680000902 considered part of New Towne?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000902 fall within New Towne (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51680000902 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51680000902 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000902 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.