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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Three Fountains Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000205 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,079 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of $1/10, tract 51680000205 in the Three Fountains area of Lynchburg ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,079 residents. That is riskier than roughly 37% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 37% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 8% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $772 monthly, set against $53,690 in average yearly household income, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 43% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 27% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,261
Renter share43.1%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate14.7%
Median income$53,690

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Three Fountains
Moderate
Within parent city
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg
Low
Within county
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#14 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg city
Moderate
Within state
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#387 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.4107, -79.2005 · click any tract to drill in

Why Three Fountains scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.7% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$772 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5

How Three Fountains compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Three Fountains risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 000205Lynchburg: 4.04.0Lynchburgparent cityCounty: 4.74.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: A: Best

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Three Fountains

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 3.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 83rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000205

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000205?

Census tract 51680000205 in the Three Fountains neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51680000205?

Median gross rent is $772/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000205?

14.7% of residents in tract 51680000205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,079.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000205?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 49th, minority 49th, housing 89th.
Q5

Is tract 51680000205 considered part of Three Fountains?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000205 fall within Three Fountains (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51680000205 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51680000205 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000205 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51680000205 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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