Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Mapledale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901227 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,079 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51153901227 covers part of the Mapledale area of Dale City, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 23% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,453
Renter share19.6%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate5.9%
Median income$128,209
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6545, -77.3636 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mapledale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.9% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,095 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Mapledale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.58%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.6%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.8%Food insecurity
- 12.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.9%Transit barriers
- 15.7%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mapledale
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.5/10.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 11 filings here across 1 tracked years. Average gross rent is $2,095, 12% above the Dale City average.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901227
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901227?
Census tract 51153901227 in the Mapledale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901227?
Median gross rent is $2,095/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901227?
5.9% of residents in tract 51153901227 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,079.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901227?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 57th, minority 80th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901227 considered part of Mapledale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901227 fall within Mapledale (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901227?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901227 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.58% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901227 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901227 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153901227 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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