Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Buckhorn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013420214 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,381 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
04013420214 is a census tract in the Buckhorn area of Mesa, AZ. It scores 4/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,381. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units2,296
Renter share45.8%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate13.5%
Median income$66,257
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4195, -111.7018 · click any tract to drill in
Why Buckhorn scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.5% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,116 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Buckhorn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 209Total filings over 5 yrs
- 10.71%Avg annual filing rate
- 17.4%Peak (2005)
- 58Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 57% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Buckhorn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.4%Food insecurity
- 9.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.1%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 13.7%Frequent mental distress
- 35.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Buckhorn
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $1,116, 31% below the Mesa average.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 35% of renters here are cost-burdened.
The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The filing record is not thin: 209 evictions over 5 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2005 at 17.4% of renter households.
In a typical year about 10.7% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 42nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 6.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $66,257. 46% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013420214
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420214?
Census tract 04013420214 in the Buckhorn neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013420214?
Median gross rent is $1,116/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420214?
13.5% of residents in tract 04013420214 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,381.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420214?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 41th, minority 55th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 04013420214 considered part of Buckhorn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420214 fall within Buckhorn (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420214?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 209 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420214 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.71% of renter households, peaking at 17.4% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013420214 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013420214 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013420214 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422102
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013941300
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Dobson Shores
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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