Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Buckhorn Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 13,120 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.5/10 · range 2.3–4.3

Buckhorn is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Mesa with 3 census tracts and a population of 13,120 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3.5/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 51% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 37% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,613/month sits 0% lower than the Mesa citywide average ($1,620).

Risk score

3.5

Lower

3 tracts · population-weighted

Buckhorn vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

51.0% +58%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,613 0%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$64,698 -18%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

13.1% +25%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

32.7% -8%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buckhorn and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 2.3–4.3

Why Buckhorn scores 3.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Rent control risk

51% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

33% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

13.1% below poverty line · Range 1.2–4.6 across tracts

3.3

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–5.3 across tracts

3.3

Risk score comparison

Buckhorn vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Buckhorn?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2 points from 2.3 to 4.3. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

4.3 3.4 2.3

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Buckhorn

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013422625	4.3	5,160	69%	$2,011
04013420214	3.4	4,381	35%	$1,116
04013422639	2.3	3,579	44%	$1,646

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 60

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 59%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 63%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 40%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 64%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Buckhorn

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

646Total filings (sum)
20.34%Avg annual filing rate
41.6%Peak year (2005)
13.07%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Buckhorn

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

8.3%Housing insecurity
5.0%Utility shutoff threat
13.0%Food insecurity
10.0%SNAP enrollment
11.3%No health insurance
38.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Buckhorn

What is the eviction-risk score for Buckhorn?

Buckhorn scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Buckhorn compare to Mesa overall?

Buckhorn scores 0.7 points higher than Mesa overall (2.8/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,613 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Buckhorn?

Average gross rent in Buckhorn is $1,613/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Buckhorn residents are renters?

33% of Buckhorn households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 13,120 residents.

Is Buckhorn a high social-vulnerability area?

Buckhorn sits in the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Buckhorn have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Buckhorn is census tract 04013422625 (score 4.3/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.3 to 4.3, a spread of 2 points.

How safe is Buckhorn for landlords?

Buckhorn carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.5/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (2.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Buckhorn?

Buckhorn has 13,403 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (73.7%), Hispanic / Latino (18.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (3.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Buckhorn

3 Venture Out 4 tracts · pop 11,661 3.6 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 3.2 Dreamland Villa 2 tracts · pop 10,073 3.2 Fountain of the Sun 6 tracts · pop 22,068 2.2 Continental at Superstition Springs 5 tracts · pop 21,203 3.3 Royal Palm Village 6 tracts · pop 23,352

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Buckhorn.

3.5 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349 3.5 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 3.6 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599 3.7 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481 3.8 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 3.2 Royal Palm Village 6 tracts · pop 23,352

Zoom out