Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Buckhorn Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 13,120 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4/10 · range 3–4.6

Buckhorn takes in 3 census tracts of Mesa, AZ, population 13,120. The Eviction Risk Score is 4/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 51% against 32.3% citywide, putting Buckhorn 18.7% over its own city.

37% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Scores across the 3 constituent tracts range from 3 to 4.6. A 1.6-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. Running cool is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10.

Filings are well documented here: 646 across 3 observed tracts. Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2.5/10. The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 41.6% of renter households.

Among the 33 mapped neighborhoods of Mesa, it ranks #9 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 9.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are McQueen and Fuller Ranch.

Average gross rent runs $1,613, close to the Mesa average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $64,698. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.6 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

Moderate

3 tracts · population-weighted

Buckhorn vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

51.0% +58%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,613 0%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$64,698 -18%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

13.1% +25%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

32.7% -8%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buckhorn and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3–4.6

Why Buckhorn scores 4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Rent control risk

51% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

33% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

13.1% below poverty line · Range 1.2–4.6 across tracts

3.3

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–5.3 across tracts

3.3

Risk score comparison

Buckhorn vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Buckhorn?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.6 points from 3 to 4.6. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

4.6 4.0 3.0

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Buckhorn

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013422625	4.6	5,160	69%	$2,011
04013420214	4	4,381	35%	$1,116
04013422639	3	3,579	44%	$1,646

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 60

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 59%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 63%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 40%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 64%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Buckhorn

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

646Total filings (sum)
20.34%Avg annual filing rate
41.6%Peak year (2005)
13.07%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Buckhorn

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

8.3%Housing insecurity
5.0%Utility shutoff threat
13.0%Food insecurity
10.0%SNAP enrollment
11.3%No health insurance
38.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Buckhorn

What is the eviction-risk score for Buckhorn?

Buckhorn scores 4/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Buckhorn compare to Mesa overall?

Buckhorn scores 0.8 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,613 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Buckhorn?

Average gross rent in Buckhorn is $1,613/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Buckhorn residents are renters?

33% of Buckhorn households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 13,120 residents.

Is Buckhorn a high social-vulnerability area?

Buckhorn sits in the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Buckhorn have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Buckhorn is census tract 04013422625 (score 4.6/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 4.6, a spread of 1.6 points.

How safe is Buckhorn for landlords?

Buckhorn carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Buckhorn?

Buckhorn has 13,403 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (73.7%), Hispanic / Latino (18.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (3.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Buckhorn

3.7 Venture Out 4 tracts · pop 11,661 4.2 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 3.8 Dreamland Villa 2 tracts · pop 10,073 3.7 Fountain of the Sun 6 tracts · pop 22,068 3.3 Continental at Superstition Springs 5 tracts · pop 21,203 3.9 Royal Palm Village 6 tracts · pop 23,352

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Buckhorn.

4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349 4.1 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 4.1 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 3.9 Hohokam Village 3 tracts · pop 10,125 4.2 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599 4.2 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481

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