Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Buckhorn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013422625 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,160 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 04013422625 covers part of the Buckhorn area of Mesa, AZ, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,160 residents. Severe burden reaches 47%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units2,053
Renter share31.9%
SVI overall1.00
Poverty rate18.5%
Median income$43,973
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
95
th percentile
Very High
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4122, -111.7008 · click any tract to drill in
Why Buckhorn scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
18.5% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$2,011 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Buckhorn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 100
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 94%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 272Total filings over 5 yrs
- 34.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 41.6%Peak (2001)
- 48Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 20% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Buckhorn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.2%Food insecurity
- 14.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.3%Transit barriers
- 15.7%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 43.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Buckhorn
69% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Set annual rent against average income of $43,973 and the ratio lands at 55%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. At $2,011 a month, rents run 24% over what the rest of Mesa commands.
Disability prevalence runs 43.8% against 31.5% nationally. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 272 filings here across 5 tracked years. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Filings peaked in 2001 at 41.6% of renter households.
In a typical year about 34.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422625
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422625?
Census tract 04013422625 in the Buckhorn neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422625?
Median gross rent is $2,011/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422625?
18.5% of residents in tract 04013422625 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,160.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422625?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 100th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 94th, minority 54th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422625 considered part of Buckhorn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422625 fall within Buckhorn (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422625?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 272 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422625 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 34.26% of renter households, peaking at 41.6% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422625 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422625 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013422625 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Hohokam Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421901
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013941300
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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