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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Buckhorn Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013422639 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,579 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

Census tract 04013422639 covers part of the Buckhorn area of Mesa, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 10% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,311
Renter share17.7%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$92,670

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Buckhorn
Very Low
Within parent city
24 th percentile
Rank, 24th percentileLowHigh
#102 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Low
Within county
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#833 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.3985, -111.6963 · click any tract to drill in

Why Buckhorn scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,646 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Buckhorn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Buckhorn risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 422639Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 5

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 165Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 12.05%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.1%Peak (2002)
  • 24Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134226392001: 26 filings (10.45/100 renter HHs)2002: 60 filings (24.12/100 renter HHs)2003: 31 filings (12.46/100 renter HHs)2004: 24 filings (9.65/100 renter HHs)2005: 24 filings (3.59/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Buckhorn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Buckhorn

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10.

SNAP participation runs 3.3% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 3.0% against 14.2% nationally.

The filing record is not thin: 165 evictions over 5 years of observation. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. Filings peaked in 2002 at 24.1% of renter households.

In a typical year about 12.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013422639

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422639?

Census tract 04013422639 in the Buckhorn neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013422639?

Median gross rent is $1,646/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422639?

4.9% of residents in tract 04013422639 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,579.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422639?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 46th, minority 0th, housing 2th.
Q5

Is tract 04013422639 considered part of Buckhorn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422639 fall within Buckhorn (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422639?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 165 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422639 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.05% of renter households, peaking at 24.1% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013422639 struggle to pay rent?

About 3.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 1.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013422639 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013422639 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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