Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Velda Rose Estates Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa
Tract 04013420202 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,130 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
04013420202 is a census tract in the Velda Rose Estates area of Mesa, AZ. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,130 residents. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 65% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units2,635
Renter share35.8%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate10.7%
Median income$66,444
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
60
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4301, -111.6931 · click any tract to drill in
Why Velda Rose Estates scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.7% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,652 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Velda Rose Estates compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 185Total filings over 5 yrs
- 9.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.7%Peak (2001)
- 34Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 24% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Velda Rose Estates. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.5%Food insecurity
- 12.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.4%Transit barriers
- 11.9%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 36.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Velda Rose Estates
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 185 filings here across 5 tracked years. The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Filings peaked in 2001 at 12.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 9.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 6.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,652, close to the Mesa average.
Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $66,444. 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013420202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420202?
Census tract 04013420202 in the Velda Rose Estates neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013420202?
Median gross rent is $1,652/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420202?
10.7% of residents in tract 04013420202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,130.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 64th, minority 39th, housing 44th.
Q5
Is tract 04013420202 considered part of Velda Rose Estates?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420202 fall within Velda Rose Estates (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 185 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.79% of renter households, peaking at 12.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013420202 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013420202 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013420202 scores 3.8/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Hohokam Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421901
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422102
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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