Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Velda Rose Estates Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 11,124 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10 · range 3.8–4.6

Velda Rose Estates spans 3 census tracts of Mesa, AZ, population 11,124. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 4.1/10, Moderate tier. 63% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, far above the Mesa rate of 32.3%.

Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Severe burden reaches 25%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10. Filings are well documented here: 1,384 across 3 observed tracts.

On the softer side is housing-court posture, at 2.5/10. The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 94.1% of renter households.

Among the 33 mapped neighborhoods of Mesa, it ranks #7 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 18.6% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Fuller Ranch and Dobson Shores score within a fraction of it. The 3 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.8 points apart at the extremes.

Average gross rent runs $1,631, close to the Mesa average. 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

3 tracts · population-weighted

Velda Rose Estates vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

62.7% +94%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,631 +1%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$60,488 -23%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

13.6% +30%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

40.1% +13%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Velda Rose Estates and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3.8–4.6

Why Velda Rose Estates scores 4.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Rent control risk

63% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

40% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

13.6% below poverty line · Range 2.7–4.8 across tracts

3.4

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.1–4.9 across tracts

3.4

Risk score comparison

Velda Rose Estates vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Velda Rose Estates?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.8 points from 3.8 to 4.6. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

4.6 4.3 3.8

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Velda Rose Estates

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013422626	4.6	2,496	73%	$1,929
04013420113	4.3	3,498	52%	$1,387
04013420202	3.8	5,130	65%	$1,652

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 63

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 55%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 66%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 38%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 66%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Velda Rose Estates

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

1,384Total filings (sum)
35.82%Avg annual filing rate
94.1%Peak year (2005)
33.13%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Velda Rose Estates

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

9.8%Housing insecurity
5.9%Utility shutoff threat
14.4%Food insecurity
11.1%SNAP enrollment
11.7%No health insurance
37.3%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Velda Rose Estates

What is the eviction-risk score for Velda Rose Estates?

Velda Rose Estates scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Velda Rose Estates compare to Mesa overall?

Velda Rose Estates scores 0.9 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 63% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,631 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Velda Rose Estates?

Average gross rent in Velda Rose Estates is $1,631/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Velda Rose Estates residents are renters?

40% of Velda Rose Estates households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 11,124 residents.

Is Velda Rose Estates a high social-vulnerability area?

Velda Rose Estates sits in the 63rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Velda Rose Estates have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Velda Rose Estates is census tract 04013422626 (score 4.6/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.8 to 4.6, a spread of 0.8 points.

How safe is Velda Rose Estates for landlords?

Velda Rose Estates carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Velda Rose Estates?

Velda Rose Estates has 11,491 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (73.2%), Hispanic / Latino (13.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (8.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Velda Rose Estates

3.9 Buckhorn 3 tracts · pop 13,120 3.7 Fountain of the Sun 6 tracts · pop 22,068 3.8 Dreamland Villa 2 tracts · pop 10,073 3 Silver Spur Ranch 2 tracts · pop 7,738 3.3 Continental at Superstition Springs 5 tracts · pop 21,203 3.7 Venture Out 4 tracts · pop 11,661

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Velda Rose Estates.

4.1 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 4 Buckhorn 3 tracts · pop 13,120 4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349 4.2 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599 4.2 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481 3.9 Hohokam Village 3 tracts · pop 10,125

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