Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Velda Rose Estates Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013422626 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,496 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04013422626 in the Velda Rose Estates area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,496 residents. 58% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units1,431
Renter share20.6%
SVI overall0.61
Poverty rate19.2%
Median income$52,838
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
84
th percentile
High
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4116, -111.6725 · click any tract to drill in
Why Velda Rose Estates scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
19.2% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,929 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Velda Rose Estates compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 61
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 24%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 8%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 37Total filings over 5 yrs
- 4.80%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.0%Peak (2001)
- 5Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 58% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Velda Rose Estates. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.4%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 11.9%No health insurance
- 11.0%Frequent mental distress
- 46.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Velda Rose Estates
73% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Set annual rent against average income of $52,838 and the ratio lands at 44%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. At $1,929 a month, rents run 19% over what the rest of Mesa commands. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Court records carry 37 eviction filings across 5 observed years. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Housing insecurity runs 6.4% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2001 at 8.0% of renter households.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422626
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422626?
Census tract 04013422626 in the Velda Rose Estates neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422626?
Median gross rent is $1,929/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422626?
19.2% of residents in tract 04013422626 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,496.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422626?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 61th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 74th, minority 8th, housing 98th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422626 considered part of Velda Rose Estates?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422626 fall within Velda Rose Estates (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422626?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 37 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422626 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.80% of renter households, peaking at 8.0% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422626 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422626 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013422626 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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