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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Velda Rose Estates Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa

Tract 04013420113 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,498 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

04013420113 is a census tract in the Velda Rose Estates area of Mesa, AZ. It scores 4.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,498 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 29% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,675
Renter share60.4%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$57,212

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Velda Rose Estates
Moderate
Within parent city
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#35 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Elevated
Within county
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#300 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#537 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4190, -111.6760 · click any tract to drill in

Why Velda Rose Estates scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,387 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Velda Rose Estates compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Velda Rose Estates risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.34.3This tracttract 420113Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,162Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 96.14%Avg annual filing rate
  • 94.1%Peak (2005)
  • 391Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134201132001: 82 filings (41.12/100 renter HHs)2002: 201 filings (100.79/100 renter HHs)2003: 182 filings (91.26/100 renter HHs)2004: 306 filings (153.45/100 renter HHs)2005: 391 filings (94.10/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 377% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Velda Rose Estates. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Velda Rose Estates

25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10.

about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Court records carry 1,162 eviction filings across 5 observed years.

At $1,387 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Mesa commands. The worst year on record was 2005, when 94.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 96.1% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013420113

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420113?

Census tract 04013420113 in the Velda Rose Estates neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013420113?

Median gross rent is $1,387/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420113?

14.0% of residents in tract 04013420113 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,498.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420113?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 62th, minority 59th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 04013420113 considered part of Velda Rose Estates?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420113 fall within Velda Rose Estates (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420113?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,162 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420113 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 96.14% of renter households, peaking at 94.1% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013420113 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013420113 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013420113 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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