Casa Rica Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 42.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. The severe-burden share is 32%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

At $2,784 a month, rents sit 38% over what the rest of Scottsdale commands. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Running cool is economic stress, at 1/10. Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 4.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Food insecurity affects 5.7% of adults, 12.1 points below the national rate. Filings are well documented here: 57 across 2 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2002, when filings touched 3.4% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 0.7% in 2005, is well off that peak.

Among the 31 mapped neighborhoods of Scottsdale, it ranks #13 by risk, the middle third. At 13% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.

With little internal variation, 3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.