Gainey Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10. Running cool is economic stress, at 1.7/10.

Court records carry 871 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. 3.8% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. SNAP participation is 5.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2004, when filings touched 27.1% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 9.4% in 2005, is well off that peak.

At $2,143 a month, rents sit 6% over what the rest of Scottsdale commands. Among the 31 mapped neighborhoods of Scottsdale, it ranks #6 by risk, the upper third.

Poverty sits at 7%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

With little internal variation, 3.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.