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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 04013061035 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 7,031 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

With a score of 3/10, tract 04013061035 in the Surprise Original Townsite area of Surprise, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,031 residents. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 16% Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units2,191
Renter share31.6%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$85,267

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Surprise Original Townsite
Very Low
Within parent city
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#17 of 29 tracts In Surprise
Moderate
Within county
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#612 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6164, -112.3507 · click any tract to drill in

Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,928 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0

How Surprise Original Townsite compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Surprise Original Townsite risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 061035Surprise: 3.23.2Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 45

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 103Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 550.45%Avg annual filing rate
  • 50.1%Peak (2005)
  • 47Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130610352001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 7 filings (268.97/100 renter HHs)2003: 13 filings (499.51/100 renter HHs)2004: 36 filings (1,383.26/100 renter HHs)2005: 47 filings (50.07/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Surprise Original Townsite. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Surprise Original Townsite

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.1/10.

Court records carry 103 eviction filings across 4 observed years. The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7. The worst year on record was 2005, when 50.1% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 550.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061035

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061035?

Census tract 04013061035 in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013061035?

Median gross rent is $1,928/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061035?

4.6% of residents in tract 04013061035 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,031.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061035?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 67th, minority 63th, housing 16th.
Q5

Is tract 04013061035 considered part of Surprise Original Townsite?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061035 fall within Surprise Original Townsite (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061035?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 103 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061035 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 550.45% of renter households, peaking at 50.1% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013061035 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013061035 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013061035 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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