Neighborhood · Tempe, AZ

Tempe Junction Eviction Risk: Moderate

9 census tracts · pop 42,970 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.1/10 · range 3–5.6

Tempe Junction is a 9-tract neighborhood of Tempe, AZ and houses 42,970 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 5.1/10, in the Moderate tier. 46% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, clearly above the Tempe rate of 31.3%.

27% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Scores across the 9 constituent tracts range from 3 to 5.6. A 2.6-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10.

The poverty rate is 23%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filings are well documented here: 5,789 across 6 observed tracts.

Average gross rent is $1,486, 15% below the Tempe average of $1,743. The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 29.0% of renter households. That places it #3 of 14 neighborhoods in Tempe.

Judgments average 6.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $63,691. 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.6 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

5.1

Moderate

9 tracts · population-weighted

Tempe Junction vs Tempe How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

45.6% +46%

Tempe: 31.3%

Average gross rent

$1,486 -15%

Tempe: $1,743

Average HH income

$63,691 -18%

Tempe: $77,643

Poverty rate

23.3% +44%

Tempe: 16.2%

Renter share

64.3% +11%

Tempe: 57.7%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tempe Junction and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 9 tracts span score 3–5.6

Why Tempe Junction scores 5.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Rent control risk

46% of income on rent · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Tenant organizing strength

64% renter households · Range 6.0–6.0 across tracts

6.0

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Economic stress

23.3% below poverty line · Range 2.0–10.0 across tracts

5.8

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.8–5.7 across tracts

3.4

Risk score comparison

Tempe Junction vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Tempe Junction?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.6 points from 3 to 5.6. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.0 3.0

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

9 tracts in Tempe Junction

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013318800	5.6	7,740	44%	$1,561
04013319002	5.6	5,062	70%	$1,494
04013318700	5.6	5,035	50%	$2,082
04013319101	5.6	3,413	69%	$1,338
04013319710	5.6	2,337	49%	$1,740
04013318900	5.1	6,516	36%	$1,589
04013319600	4.9	5,644	40%	$1,686
04013319705	4	3,915	53%	$1,335
04013319001	3	3,308	—	—

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 61

Pop-weighted across 9 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 71%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 18%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 62%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 73%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Tempe Junction

Aggregated across 6 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

5,789Total filings (sum)
12.94%Avg annual filing rate
29.0%Peak year (2005)
14.67%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Tempe Junction

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

12.0%Housing insecurity
7.2%Utility shutoff threat
17.5%Food insecurity
12.1%SNAP enrollment
11.3%No health insurance
28.0%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Tempe Junction

What is the eviction-risk score for Tempe Junction?

Tempe Junction scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 9 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Tempe Junction compare to Tempe overall?

Tempe Junction scores 0.9 points higher than Tempe overall (4.2/10). Renters spend 46% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $1,486 vs $1,743.

What is the average rent in Tempe Junction?

Average gross rent in Tempe eviction risk Junction is $1,486/month (pop-weighted across 9 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Tempe Junction residents are renters?

64% of Tempe Junction households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Tempe). The neighborhood has 42,970 residents.

Is Tempe Junction a high social-vulnerability area?

Tempe Junction sits in the 61st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Tempe Junction have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Tempe Junction is census tract 04013318800 (score 5.6/10). Across the 9 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 5.6, a spread of 2.6 points.

How safe is Tempe Junction for landlords?

Tempe eviction risk Junction carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.1/10). Pop-weighted across 9 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tempe as a whole (4.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Tempe Junction?

Tempe Junction has 44,841 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.8%), Hispanic / Latino (23%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (9.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Tempe Junction

5.4 Culdesac Tempe 5 tracts · pop 29,042 4 McClintock Manor 5 tracts · pop 24,876 4.9 Peterson 6 tracts · pop 20,867 4 Cimarron 6 tracts · pop 23,941 4.5 Minnesota Court 4 tracts · pop 13,019 4.3 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Tempe

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Tempe Junction.

5.1 Peterson 6 tracts · pop 20,867 5.2 Papage Parkway No. 6 1 tracts · pop 3,369 5.4 Culdesac Tempe 5 tracts · pop 29,042 4.5 Helena 2 tracts · pop 11,465 4.4 Campo Allegre Tract 1 tracts · pop 3,883 4.2 The Lakes 1 tracts · pop 5,212

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