Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Moderate

5 census tracts · pop 20,599 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.2/10 · range 3.4–5.6

Tempe Cascade spans 5 census tracts of Mesa, AZ, population 20,599. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.2/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 47% against 32.3% citywide, putting Tempe Cascade 14.9% over its own city.

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.1/10. Scores across the 5 constituent tracts range from 3.4 to 5.6. A 2.2-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2/10.

The severe-burden share is 17%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Filings are well documented here: 4,025 across 5 observed tracts.

Average gross rent is $1,360, 16% below the Mesa average of $1,620. Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2.7/10.

Filing activity peaked in 2005 at 104.3% of renter households. Among the 33 mapped neighborhoods of Mesa, it ranks #4 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 15.9% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Dobson Shores and Velda Rose Estates score within a fraction of it. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $66,739.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.2 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

5 tracts · population-weighted

Tempe Cascade vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

47.2% +46%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,360 -16%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$66,739 -15%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

14.7% +40%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

60.5% +70%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tempe Cascade and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 5 tracts span score 3.4–5.6

Why Tempe Cascade scores 4.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–7.5 across tracts

4.0

Rent control risk

47% of income on rent · Range 1.0–2.0 across tracts

1.1

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–4.5 across tracts

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

61% renter households · Range 2.5–6.0 across tracts

2.9

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–4.5 across tracts

2.7

Economic stress

14.7% below poverty line · Range 2.1–5.2 across tracts

3.7

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–2.9 across tracts

2.0

Risk score comparison

Tempe Cascade vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Tempe Cascade?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.2 points from 3.4 to 5.6. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

5.6 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.4

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

5 tracts in Tempe Cascade

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013319300	5.6	2,371	50%	$1,218
04013421201	4.5	5,321	38%	$1,545
04013421304	4.4	4,099	64%	$1,481
04013421202	3.7	3,576	48%	$1,124
04013421303	3.4	5,232	41%	$1,304

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 64

Pop-weighted across 5 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 62%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 35%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 68%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 72%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Tempe Cascade

Aggregated across 5 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

4,025Total filings (sum)
27.49%Avg annual filing rate
104.3%Peak year (2005)
31.07%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Tempe Cascade

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.3%Housing insecurity
8.0%Utility shutoff threat
18.8%Food insecurity
12.7%SNAP enrollment
14.5%No health insurance
28.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Tempe Cascade

What is the eviction-risk score for Tempe Cascade?

Tempe Cascade scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Tempe Cascade compare to Mesa overall?

Tempe Cascade scores 1.0 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,360 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Tempe Cascade?

Average gross rent in Tempe eviction risk Cascade is $1,360/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Tempe Cascade residents are renters?

61% of Tempe Cascade households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 20,599 residents.

Is Tempe Cascade a high social-vulnerability area?

Tempe Cascade sits in the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Tempe Cascade have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Tempe Cascade is census tract 04013319300 (score 5.6/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.4 to 5.6, a spread of 2.2 points.

How safe is Tempe Cascade for landlords?

Tempe eviction risk Cascade carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.2/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Tempe Cascade?

Tempe Cascade has 20,735 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (43.3%), Hispanic / Latino (36%), Other / Multiracial (12.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Tempe Cascade

5.4 Culdesac Tempe 5 tracts · pop 29,042 3.7 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481 4 McClintock Manor 5 tracts · pop 24,876 4.4 Mesa Patios 7 tracts · pop 24,912 3.9 Hohokam Village 3 tracts · pop 10,125 3 Knoell East 3 tracts · pop 8,032

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Tempe Cascade.

4.2 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481 4.3 Mesa Patios 7 tracts · pop 24,912 4.1 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 4.1 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 4 Buckhorn 3 tracts · pop 13,120 4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349

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