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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Amphitheater Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004508 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,645 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

With a score of 5.2/10, tract 04019004508 in the Amphitheater area of Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 39%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 14% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units2,017
Renter share30.2%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate20.2%
Median income$38,479

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Amphitheater
Low
Within parent city
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#20 of 143 tracts In Tucson
High
Within county
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2849, -110.9857 · click any tract to drill in

Why Amphitheater scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
20.2% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$991 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Amphitheater compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Amphitheater risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 004508Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,579Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 16.35%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.0%Peak (2006)
  • 88Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190045082004: 188 filings (28.66/100 renter HHs)2005: 166 filings (20.10/100 renter HHs)2006: 190 filings (23.00/100 renter HHs)2007: 113 filings (13.68/100 renter HHs)2008: 107 filings (12.95/100 renter HHs)2009: 129 filings (15.62/100 renter HHs)2010: 102 filings (14.51/100 renter HHs)2011: 129 filings (14.38/100 renter HHs)2012: 175 filings (19.51/100 renter HHs)2013: 111 filings (12.37/100 renter HHs)2016: 81 filings (10.28/100 renter HHs)2017: 88 filings (11.17/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 53% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Amphitheater. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Amphitheater

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs 53% here against 43.8% across Pima County.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The filing record is not thin: 1,579 evictions over 12 years of observation. Average gross rent is $991, 13% below the Tucson average. Filings peaked in 2006 at 23.0% of renter households.

In a typical year about 16.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $38,479. 30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004508

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004508?

Census tract 04019004508 in the Amphitheater neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004508?

Median gross rent is $991/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004508?

20.2% of residents in tract 04019004508 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,645.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004508?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 98th, minority 70th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004508 considered part of Amphitheater?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004508 fall within Amphitheater (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004508?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,579 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004508 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.35% of renter households, peaking at 23.0% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004508 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004508 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004508 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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