Dunbar Spring Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 35%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. What pushes the score up most is economic stress at 8.6/10. Severe burden reaches 24%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.1/10.

The filing record is not thin: 135 evictions logged in this tract. At $978 a month, rents sit 15% under what the rest of Tucson commands. The worst year on record was 2007, when filings touched 4.7% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 1.7% in 2017, is well off that peak. Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #2 by risk, the upper third. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

One tract means one number: 5.2/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.