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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

El Gheko Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004067 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,698 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 04019004067 sits in the El Gheko area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. Population here is 2,698. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 27% Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units1,737
Renter share58.1%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate15.2%
Median income$50,068

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In El Gheko
Very High
Within parent city
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#78 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#94 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#471 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2406, -110.8490 · click any tract to drill in

Why El Gheko scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
15.2% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,381 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How El Gheko compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
El Gheko risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 004067Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 70

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 591Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 6.46%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.4%Peak (2009)
  • 45Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040672004: 61 filings (9.20/100 renter HHs)2005: 65 filings (9.00/100 renter HHs)2006: 45 filings (6.23/100 renter HHs)2007: 44 filings (6.09/100 renter HHs)2008: 50 filings (6.92/100 renter HHs)2009: 68 filings (9.42/100 renter HHs)2010: 38 filings (4.73/100 renter HHs)2011: 44 filings (5.12/100 renter HHs)2012: 47 filings (5.47/100 renter HHs)2013: 44 filings (5.12/100 renter HHs)2016: 40 filings (4.80/100 renter HHs)2017: 45 filings (5.40/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 26% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within El Gheko. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in El Gheko

Set annual rent against average income of $50,068 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Against Pima County at 43.8%, about half of renters here are cost-burdened. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

At $1,381 a month, rents run 21% over what the rest of Tucson commands. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 591 filings here across 12 tracked years.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. Filings peaked in 2009 at 9.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 6.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004067

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004067?

Census tract 04019004067 in the El Gheko neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004067?

Median gross rent is $1,381/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004067?

15.2% of residents in tract 04019004067 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,698.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004067?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 49th, minority 56th, housing 37th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004067 considered part of El Gheko?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004067 fall within El Gheko (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004067?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 591 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004067 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.46% of renter households, peaking at 9.4% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004067 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004067 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004067 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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