Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019002904 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,389
How risky is Tucson for landlords? Census tract 04019002904 scores 5.7/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 66th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 53% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 39% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,237 a month while the average household earns $53,371 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. Renters make up 33% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,693
Renter share33.0%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate14.1%
Median income$53,371
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
Elevated
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2536, -110.8840 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.1% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,237 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 53%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 222Total filings over 12 yrs
- 2.77%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2004)
- 15Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 46% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 6.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 8.3%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 35.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 6.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 222 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 2.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.1% of renter households in 2004.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002904
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002904?
Census tract 04019002904 in Tucson scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002904?
Median gross rent is $1,237/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002904?
14.1% of residents in tract 04019002904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,389.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002904?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 53th, minority 41th, housing 98th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002904?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 222 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.77% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019002904 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019002904 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002904 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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6.3
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6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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