Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Johnson Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , San Tan Valley
Tract 04021000226 · Pinal, AZ · pop 6,586 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 04021000226 covers part of the Johnson Ranch area of San Tan Valley, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,586 residents. Severe burden reaches 50%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units2,114
Renter share6.4%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$95,902
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
4
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across San Tan Valley and the region
Centroid at 33.1756, -111.5582 · click any tract to drill in
Why Johnson Ranch scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,875 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Tan Valley
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.9
How Johnson Ranch compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Johnson Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 7.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Johnson Ranch
Cost burden runs 59% here against 37.6% across Pinal County. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 7.0% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.8 points below the Pinal County average of 3.8.
At $1,875 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of San Tan Valley commands. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 6% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.6/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04021000226
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000226?
Census tract 04021000226 in the Johnson Ranch neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04021000226?
Median gross rent is $1,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000226?
3.8% of residents in tract 04021000226 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,586.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000226?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 34th, minority 49th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 04021000226 considered part of Johnson Ranch?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000226 fall within Johnson Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04021000226 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04021000226 compare to San Tan Valley overall?
Tract 04021000226 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of San Tan Valley at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in San Tan Valley
Top eight tracts in San Tan Valley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Circle Cross Ranch
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Copper Basin
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
San Tan Heights
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Whitewing in the San Tans
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04021000217
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Copper Basin
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Pecan Creek South
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Pecan Creek
3
/ 10 · Low
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