Neighborhood · Ranked #72,539 of 84,120 nationally

Johnson Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , San Tan Valley

Tract 04021000227 · Pinal, AZ · pop 4,545 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 04021000227 covers the Johnson Ranch neighborhood of San Tan Valley, home to 4,545 residents. For landlords it grades 4.7/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 30th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 27% of renter households, a moderate level, and 5% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,167 monthly, set against $101,071 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 34% of occupied homes.

Risk score

2.1

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 25% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units1,768

Renter share34.4%

SVI overall0.02

Poverty rate7.1%

Median income$101,071

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Tan Valley and the region

Centroid at 33.1487, -111.5602 · click any tract to drill in

Why Johnson Ranch scores 2.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

7.1% poverty · this tract

1.8

Supply constraint

$2,167 rent vs county FMR

6.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Tan Valley

5.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.9

How Johnson Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

10%Socioeconomic
5%Household composition
53%Racial/ethnic minority
3%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Johnson Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.0%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
11.9%Food insecurity
7.3%SNAP enrollment
6.8%Transit barriers
8.8%No health insurance
15.9%Frequent mental distress
27.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Johnson Ranch

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pinal County average of 4.9 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 2nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021000227

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000227?

Census tract 04021000227 in the Johnson Ranch neighborhood scores 2.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04021000227?

Median gross rent is $2,167/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000227?

7.1% of residents in tract 04021000227 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,545.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000227?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 5th, minority 53th, housing 3th.

Is tract 04021000227 considered part of Johnson Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000227 fall within Johnson Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04021000227 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04021000227 compare to San Tan Valley overall?

Tract 04021000227 scores 2.1/10, lower than the parent city of San Tan Valley at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Tan Valley

Top eight tracts in San Tan Valley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.