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Neighborhood · Carrollwood, FL

Arlington Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 12,496 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.2/10 · range 3.1–3.3

Arlington takes in 4 census tracts of Carrollwood, FL and houses 12,496 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3.2/10, in the Lower tier. roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the Carrollwood rate of 36.4%.

Pulling the other way is eviction-process difficulty, at 1/10. 25% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool is economic stress, at 1.8/10.

On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 7.9/10. Court records carry 603 eviction filings across its 4 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 25.7% of renter households. Average gross rent is $1,566, 9% below the Carrollwood average of $1,715.

The most recent observed rate, 2.0% in 2016, is well off that peak. The closest comparables inside the same city are Carrollwood Village and Andover. Poverty sits at 7%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

The 4 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.2 points apart at the extremes. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $88,896.

30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
4 tracts · population-weighted
Arlington vs Carrollwood How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
52.4% +44%
Carrollwood: 36.4%
Average gross rent
$1,566 -9%
Carrollwood: $1,715
Average HH income
$88,896 +16%
Carrollwood: $76,723
Poverty rate
7.0% -4%
Carrollwood: 7.3%
Renter share
30.1% -5%
Carrollwood: 31.5%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 3.1–3.3

Why Arlington scores 3.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts
5.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 4.6–5.8 across tracts
5.5
Rent control risk
52% of income on rent · Range 7.6–8.2 across tracts
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.0–1.1 across tracts
1.0
Tenant organizing strength
30% renter households · Range 6.0–6.7 across tracts
6.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.0–6.7 across tracts
6.2
Economic stress
7.0% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.8 across tracts
1.8
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.1–4.0 across tracts
2.9
Risk score comparison

Arlington vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Arlington score vs. parent city, state, U.S.3.2ArlingtonNeighborhood4.0Parent cityhost city3.9Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Arlington?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.2 points from 3.1 to 3.3. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Arlington

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
12057011301 3.3 3,655 50% $1,643
12057011303 3.2 3,364 52% $1,203
12057011516 3.1 3,377 54% $1,781
12057011407 3.1 2,100 54% $1,668
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 43

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 28%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 57%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 58%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 52%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Arlington

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 603Total filings (sum)
  • 5.47%Avg annual filing rate
  • 25.7%Peak year (2005)
  • 2.04%Latest filed (2016)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 246Total filings 2020-21
  • 0.9Avg monthly observed
  • 0.9Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.91×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).

Frequently asked

About Arlington

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Arlington?

Arlington scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Arlington compare to Carrollwood overall?

Arlington scores 0.8 points lower than Carrollwood overall (4/10). Renters spend 52% of income on rent vs 36% citywide. Average rent: $1,566 vs $1,715.
Q3

What is the average rent in Arlington?

Average gross rent in Arlington is $1,566/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Arlington residents are renters?

30% of Arlington households are renter-occupied (vs 32% in Carrollwood). The neighborhood has 12,496 residents.
Q5

Is Arlington a high social-vulnerability area?

Arlington sits in the 43rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Arlington have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Arlington is census tract 12057011301 (score 3.3/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.1 to 3.3, a spread of 0.2 points.
Q7

How safe is Arlington for landlords?

Arlington carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.2/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Carrollwood as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Arlington?

Arlington has 12,316 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (60.8%), Hispanic / Latino (28.6%), Black (non-Hispanic) (5.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Arlington

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Carrollwood

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Arlington.

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