Within neighborhood
20
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Nowatney Eviction Risk: Moderate , University
Tract 12057010821 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 2,881 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
12057010821 is a census tract in the Nowatney area of University, FL. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 68%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 1%
Tract context
Occupied units1,029
Renter share98.9%
SVI overall1.00
Poverty rate36.4%
Median income$29,281
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across University and the region
Centroid at 28.0717, -82.4371 · click any tract to drill in
Why Nowatney scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from University
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
36.4% poverty · this tract
9.1
Supply constraint
$1,158 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from University
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from University
1.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from University
1.0
How Nowatney compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 100
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 91%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 461Total filings 2020-21
- 6.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 10.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.60×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Nowatney. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Nowatney
Against Hillsborough County at 51.5%, 68% of renters here are cost-burdened. Adults with no health insurance runs 40.1% against 11.3% nationally. 99% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Set annual rent against average income of $29,281 and the ratio lands at 47%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.1/10. The poverty rate is 36%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. Running cool, housing-court posture reads 1/10. Disability prevalence runs 47.9% against 31.5% nationally.
On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 10/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Hillsborough County average of 4.2 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057010821
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057010821?
Census tract 12057010821 in the Nowatney neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057010821?
Median gross rent is $1,158/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057010821?
36.4% of residents in tract 12057010821 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,881.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057010821?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 100th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 93th, minority 91th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 12057010821 considered part of Nowatney?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057010821 fall within Nowatney (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 12057010821 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.60× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 12057010821 compare to University overall?
Tract 12057010821 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of University at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from University; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in University
Top eight tracts in University ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
The Oaks
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12057011003
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Vieux Carre
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
North Tampa Heights
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
The Oaks
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Nowatney
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Nowatney
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Nowatney
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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