Decatur Eviction Risk: Elevated

28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 8.7/10.

The poverty rate is 35%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 45% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Macon County average of 34.1%.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10. Against the Macon County average of 4.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.9/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10.

Statewide the IL average is 5.1, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.