Trails End Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 59.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.2/10.

Running hot is supply constraint at 8.2/10. At $2,040 a month, rents sit 19% over what the rest of Carmel commands.

Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.2/10. SNAP participation is 3.0% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Filings are well documented here: 25 across 2 observed tracts. Food insecurity affects 6.5% of adults, 11.3 points below the national rate.

10% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Filing activity peaked in 2011 at 4.1% of renter households. That places it #3 of 8 neighborhoods in Carmel.

Judgments average 1.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. At 19% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. The closest comparables inside the same city are Grannan Grove and Holaday Hills and Dales.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

With little internal variation, 3.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.