Neighborhood · Carmel, IN

Trails End Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 13,534 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.4/10 · range 1.1–1.8

Trails End is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Carmel with 3 census tracts and a population of 13,534 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.4/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 42% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 10% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,040/month sits 19% higher than the Carmel citywide average ($1,712).

Risk score

1.4

Lower

3 tracts · population-weighted

Trails End vs Carmel How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

42.4% +59%

Carmel: 26.7%

Average gross rent

$2,040 +19%

Carmel: $1,712

Average HH income

$122,127 -9%

Carmel: $134,602

Poverty rate

3.6% -4%

Carmel: 3.7%

Renter share

18.6% -28%

Carmel: 25.7%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Trails End and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 1.1–1.8

Why Trails End scores 1.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts

2.0

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.7–4.7 across tracts

4.7

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts

5.2

Rent control risk

42% of income on rent · Range 4.4–4.4 across tracts

4.4

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.1–2.3 across tracts

2.2

Tenant organizing strength

19% renter households · Range 5.4–5.7 across tracts

5.6

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Economic stress

3.6% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.6 across tracts

1.2

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 6.4–10.0 across tracts

8.2

Risk score comparison

Trails End vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Trails End?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.7 points from 1.1 to 1.8. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

1.8 1.5 1.1

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Trails End

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
18057110811	1.8	4,527	26%	$1,463
18057111101	1.5	3,811	63%	$1,647
18057110912	1.1	5,196	41%	$2,832

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 10

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 14%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 26%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 32%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 16%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Trails End

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

25Total filings (sum)
3.11%Avg annual filing rate
4.1%Peak year (2011)
3.11%Latest filed (2011)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Trails End

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

5.7%Housing insecurity
4.1%Utility shutoff threat
6.4%Food insecurity
3.0%SNAP enrollment
4.6%No health insurance
22.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Trails End

What is the eviction-risk score for Trails End?

Trails End scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Trails End compare to Carmel overall?

Trails End scores 0.8 points lower than Carmel overall (2.2/10). Renters spend 42% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,040 vs $1,712.

What is the average rent in Trails End?

Average gross rent in Trails End is $2,040/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Trails End residents are renters?

19% of Trails End households are renter-occupied (vs 26% in Carmel). The neighborhood has 13,534 residents.

Is Trails End a high social-vulnerability area?

Trails End sits in the 10th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Trails End have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Trails End is census tract 18057110811 (score 1.8/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.1 to 1.8, a spread of 0.7 points.

How safe is Trails End for landlords?

Trails End carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.4/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Carmel as a whole (2.2/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Trails End?

Trails End has 13,665 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (81.2%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (5.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Trails End

1.9 Downtown Fishers 2 tracts · pop 12,686 2.4 Echo Crest 3 tracts · pop 11,750 1.7 New Britton 2 tracts · pop 11,139 1.1 Oak Hall 3 tracts · pop 20,650 2.8 Downtown Noblesville 2 tracts · pop 7,085

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Carmel

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Trails End.

1.3 Holaday Hills and Dales 1 tracts · pop 2,853 1.3 Abney Glen 1 tracts · pop 6,497 1.1 Windmere 1 tracts · pop 3,796 1 Grannan Grove 1 tracts · pop 7,512 1 Huntington Chase 1 tracts · pop 7,651 1.8 Orchard Park 1 tracts · pop 5,435

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