1 census tracts · pop 4,314 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.7/10
· range 4.7–4.7
Chestnut Run is a one-tract neighborhood of Toms River, NJ, population 4,314. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.7/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 55% against 29.1% citywide, putting Chestnut Run 25.4% over its own city.
Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 2.3/10. 15% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
The filing record is not thin: 1,121 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 33.2% of renter households. SNAP participation is 7.1% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
The most recent observed rate, 18.7% in 2018, is well off that peak. Among the 17 mapped neighborhoods of Toms River, it ranks #4 by risk, the upper third. Average gross rent runs $1,782, close to the Toms River average.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $81,991. 44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.7/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Chestnut Run vs Toms RiverHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority61%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport54%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Chestnut Run
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
1,121Total filings (sum)
24.36%Avg annual filing rate
33.2%Peak year (2013)
18.66%Latest filed (2018)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Chestnut Run
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
12.3%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility shutoff threat
13.4%Food insecurity
7.1%SNAP enrollment
11.5%No health insurance
22.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Chestnut Run
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Chestnut Run?
Chestnut Run scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Chestnut Run compare to Toms River overall?
Chestnut Run scores 0.1 points higher than Toms River overall (4.6/10). Renters spend 55% of income on rent vs 29% citywide. Average rent: $1,782 vs $1,731.
Q3
What is the average rent in Chestnut Run?
Average gross rent in Chestnut Run is $1,782/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Chestnut Run residents are renters?
44% of Chestnut Run households are renter-occupied (vs 18% in Toms River). The neighborhood has 4,314 residents.
Q5
Is Chestnut Run a high social-vulnerability area?
Chestnut Run sits in the 52nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Chestnut Run for landlords?
Chestnut Run carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.7/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Toms River as a whole (4.6/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Chestnut Run?
Chestnut Run has 4,511 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (58%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (11.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
