Neighborhood · Toms River, NJ

Chestnut Run Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 4,314 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.9/10 · range 3.9–3.9

Chestnut Run is a diverse neighborhood in Toms River with 1 census tract and a population of 4,314 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3.9/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 55% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 15% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,782/month sits 3% higher than the Toms River citywide average ($1,731).

Risk score

3.9

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Chestnut Run vs Toms River How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

54.5% +87%

Toms River: 29.1%

Average gross rent

$1,782 +3%

Toms River: $1,731

Average HH income

$81,991 -14%

Toms River: $95,759

Poverty rate

9.2% +46%

Toms River: 6.3%

Renter share

44.0% +142%

Toms River: 18.2%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chestnut Run and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 3.9–3.9

Why Chestnut Run scores 3.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts

6.8

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 3.6–3.6 across tracts

3.6

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 4.2–4.2 across tracts

4.2

Rent control risk

55% of income on rent · Range 6.9–6.9 across tracts

6.9

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.9–6.9 across tracts

6.9

Tenant organizing strength

44% renter households · Range 4.4–4.4 across tracts

4.4

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts

5.3

Economic stress

9.2% below poverty line · Range 2.3–2.3 across tracts

2.3

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.7–3.7 across tracts

3.7

Risk score comparison

Chestnut Run vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Chestnut Run

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
34029722800	3.9	4,314	54%	$1,782

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 52

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 56%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 30%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 61%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 54%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Chestnut Run

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

1,121Total filings (sum)
24.36%Avg annual filing rate
33.2%Peak year (2013)
18.66%Latest filed (2018)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Chestnut Run

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

12.3%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility shutoff threat
13.4%Food insecurity
7.1%SNAP enrollment
11.5%No health insurance
22.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Chestnut Run

What is the eviction-risk score for Chestnut Run?

Chestnut Run scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Chestnut Run compare to Toms River overall?

Chestnut Run scores 2.9 points lower than Toms River overall (6.8/10). Renters spend 55% of income on rent vs 29% citywide. Average rent: $1,782 vs $1,731.

What is the average rent in Chestnut Run?

Average gross rent in Chestnut Run is $1,782/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Chestnut Run residents are renters?

44% of Chestnut Run households are renter-occupied (vs 18% in Toms River). The neighborhood has 4,314 residents.

Is Chestnut Run a high social-vulnerability area?

Chestnut Run sits in the 52nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Chestnut Run for landlords?

Chestnut Run carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.9/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Toms River as a whole (6.8/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Chestnut Run?

Chestnut Run has 4,511 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (58%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (11.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Chestnut Run

2.4 Downtown 2 tracts · pop 5,765 2.5 Cranmoor Manor 2 tracts · pop 5,988 4.8 Four Seasons 2 tracts · pop 7,054 3.3 Oak Knoll 3 tracts · pop 14,501 5.1 Bay Shore 2 tracts · pop 3,228 2.8 Bayville 2 tracts · pop 8,739

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Toms River

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Chestnut Run.

4 The Landings 1 tracts · pop 3,690 3.6 Maple Shade 1 tracts · pop 5,740 4.2 Eagle Trace 1 tracts · pop 7,136 3.5 Oak Ridge 1 tracts · pop 6,132 4.3 Island Beach Heights 1 tracts · pop 2,715 3.4 Holly Village 1 tracts · pop 6,833

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