Lyell-Otis Eviction Risk: High

The severe-burden share is 34%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 28.4% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 2.1/10. 18.6% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Scores across the 2 constituent tracts range from 8.3 to 9.5. A 1.2-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10. Running hot is economic stress at 7.2/10.

At $1,013 a month, rents sit 6% under what the rest of Rochester commands. Among the 36 mapped neighborhoods of Rochester, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $39,664. 50% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 9.5 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.