Mayor's Heights Eviction Risk: High

SNAP participation is 48.7% of households versus 15.2% nationally. 25.4% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1.9/10.

The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Running hot is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure at 7/10. At $991 a month, rents sit 8% under what the rest of Rochester commands. Among the 36 mapped neighborhoods of Rochester, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

For a like-for-like read, Beechwood and Historic Grove Street Neighborhood score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

One tract means one number: 9.5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.